Second Life's temporary population ceiling

Earlier this month, the Second Life Herald -- an online publication covering developments in the virtual world -- reported that Second Life was refusing new "citizens." The article, by resident staff writer Anechoic Nicole, noted that Linden Lab's recent move to eliminate the credit card requirement resulted in a surge in new residents and additional stress on the Second Life infrastructure. However, the article says the block on new registrations was only temporary, and new residents can once again join Second Life.

It is not surprising that Linden Lab has the ability to shut off the inflow of new registrations. As I have noted before, the infrastructure is creaky and cannot easily scale to handle large numbers of users.

However, I believe the move to eliminate the credit card requirement is a step in the right direction to making the world more inclusive. I pointed out last year that not all young people have credit cards, so removing that barrier really opens SL up to a lot of new participants.

Another step to encourage participation: Improving the Second Life user interface, by streamlining and simplifying the tools available to residents, or even creating a "Lite" version for casual browsers or users who just want to dip their toes in the virtual sea.

The future of the Internet: Ray Kurzweil, Trey Perry, and the Pew report

A few weeks ago, I published my essay on the next 15 years of mass media evolution (see "Meeting the Second Wave: How Technology, Demographics, and Usage Trends Will Drive the Next Generation of Media Evolution," on my Harvard and I, Lamont blogs). Since then, I have been actively seeking out other futurist writings, and have found a few that need to be discussed here.

The first is Ray Kurzweil's book, The Singularity Is Near, which I started to read on my way out to Intel HQ last week. Kurzweil puts forward an intriguing and convincing vision of a future dominated by massive computing resources, biomedical advances, nanotechnology, and virtual reality. In less than 40 years, he believes processing and storage power, growing at an exponential rate, will lead to artificial intelligence and the ability of human brains to interface directly with computers. Nanobots will be able to help solve some of our most pressing environmental crises, and will even be able to cruise the human bloodstream and, through networked connections, generate virtual representations of their hosts. Kurzweil's vision is fascinating, although I have to say his rigorous examination of the evolution of current biomedical and computing technologies is clouded by his own personal interest in living longer -- he says he takes something like 250 supplements per day to ensure that he lives to see the age in which he can take advantage of these marvelous technological advances. Is logic driving his views, or personal hope for an extended biological lifespan and digital immortality?

On a shorter timeline, Trey Perry and the Pew American Internet & Life project have published visions of the Internet in 2017 and 2020, respectively. Trey predicts the development of personal Internet technologies over the next ten years, while the Pew report ("The Future of the Internet II") has gathered the opinions of various experts regarding the big picture of the Internet's influence upon society at the start of the '20s. I will quote a few key findings of the Pew report here:

On the growth of the network:

A majority of respondents agreed with a scenario which posited that a global, low-cost network will be thriving in 2020 and will be available to most people around the world at low cost. And they agreed that a tech-abetted “flattening” of the world will open up opportunities for success for many people who will compete globally.

Still, a vocal and sizeable minority of respondents say they are unsure that the policy climate will be favorable for such internet expansion. The center of the resistance, they say, will be in the businesses anxious to preserve their current advantages and in policy circles where control over information and communication is a central value.

On autonomous technology:

Most respondents said they think humans will remain in charge of technology between now and 2020. However some fear that technological progress will eventually create machines and processes that move beyond human control. Others said they fear that the leaders who exercise control of the technology might use this power inappropriately.

On the new Luddites:

Future Most respondents agreed that there will people who will remain unconnected to the network because of their economic circumstances and others who think a class of technology refuseniks will emerge by 2020. They will form their own cultural group that lives apart from “modern” society and some will commit acts of violence in protest to technology.

On virtual reality:

Many respondents agreed with the notion that those who are connected online will devote more time to sophisticated, compelling, networked, synthetic worlds by 2020. While this will foster productivity and connectedness and be an advantage to many, it will lead to addiction problems for some.

There are many, many additional issues that are discussed in the Pew report, including the future of privacy, nation-states, legal issues, the Semantic Web, standards, interoperability, language and translation, computing costs, coding, and economic factors. I encourage everyone interested in the next 10-15 years of Internet development to read the Pew center's full report.

Second Life's 2D and X3D possibilities

Last week, I had the opportunity to participate in a panel on Second Life out in Silicon Valley, at Intel HQ. It was fun to discuss virtual worlds, and some of the challenges facing users and companies in Second Life. I wrote up some of the issues that were brought up at the panel, and expanded my own ideas, over on my Computerworld blog. Check out the post to read my takes on 2D views into 3D worlds, and the ongoing fragmentation of virtual communities. Also look at the comments -- Tony Parisi and a few others left some interesting tidbits to mull over, especially regarding the future role of standards like X3D and the H-Anim specification.

Second Life's infrastructure issues and the end of Utopia

On my Computerworld blog this week, I wrote a lengthy post on Second Life's continuing struggle to expand, entitled "Second Life's population problems." The gist of the post is SL is not nearly as popular as is regularly suggested, and is built on a creaky infrastructure that cannot scale.

Interestingly, the reaction to this post was far more muted than the reaction I received to my last Computerworld salvo against Second Life, in which I criticized the PR-driven forced march into the virtual world, and the UI. This time, I actually received a supportive comment, and the negativity was limited to a few pleas to give Second Life a chance. I think many SLers are starting to realize Second Life is far from a Utopia. They don't have to read about the problems somewhere else; many people who visit the world can see some bizarre activity taking place, dissent, and bandwidth/processing-related rendering problems.

That's not to say Second Life is a lost cause. I am a firm believer in the potential of virtual worlds -- including Second Life, as well as newer endeavors such as Sony Home -- to improve certain types of communication needs, such as education, product demonstrations, and of course, gaming. Additionally, research conducted by the Pew Internet & American Life Project last year found that five million people were taking "virtual tours" online on a typical day -- this news bodes well for the future of virtual reality and 3D technologies to connect people.

Also, in related news, I have been invited to participate in a panel on Second Life later this month. It looks very interesting -- there seems to be a range of opinions represented in the group. I'll post more after the panel takes place.